collapse...

Perhaps i am a bit of a doomer, but i think we are currently witnessing the collapse of the modern society....

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Hey! stop! Don't close your browser, hear me out! I am not saying "The end is nigh!!!"

Every civilisation known to man has collapsed and life kept going on, so i don't think we are in an "end of the world" scenario, but more in a process of slow downsizing. The most important part will be to dampen the impact of this forced downsizing.

will it play out?

My prediction is that within the next years the trends we are already witnessing will continue: The climate change will even more often interrupt production, destroy factories and sink cargo ships, more often you will find out that a new announced product will not reach a store in your area or at least not in a quantity that would be needed. The free market will then react and prices will go up. While new products will be more and more harder to get by, the value of used goods will also increase. Your old mobile phone that sits in your drawer will suddenly become valueable again. We will see a rise of second hand shops and (as we are already seeing right now) buying refurbished goods will be more and more advertised. (Which, by the way, is a good thing for the environment)

Covid has shown us how fragile the modern society is and how easily a disruption will lead to civil unrest (and, in turn, more rigid answers of the governments), i can imagine to see more of this in the near future. I can also imagine that more and more people failing to trust the government will form parallel societies living on their own rules (we can see this right now in germany with the "Reichsbuerger" movement). After some time this could lead to a loss of authority of the government which will find its place in this new order and merely manage the new subcultures emerging in its borders and only intervene if things get to much out of hand. Think of the time of the "Holy roman empire of german nations".

International travelling will become more and more complicated and i think within my lifetime it will be again as uncommon to travel around the world as it was in the 1700's. There will be people who do travel, but the days of the cheap transatlantic flights will soon be over. I can also imagine - as we see right now - that sailing cargo ships will have a revival. The Tres Hombres (and other currently sailing cargo ships) is a good example how travel might look like in the future: You will work (and pay a little) for a passage on one of thoose ships.

I think even commuting to work or to another city will also get more simple in terms of technology: Peak oil and more and more expensive fuel and failing to manufacture batteries and electronics for electric cars will lead to a more widespread use of bicycles, simple electric carriages and the use of trains.

conclusion

I don't think we need to fear collapse, merely see it as a necessary step down towards a more sustainable future. I cannot remember where i read this quote, but someone imagined a future human civilisation as something more resembling the 1700's with better dental hygiene, CB radio and electricity. Not so bad a world to live in in my opinion...