gemini://oberdada.pollux.casa/gemlog/2022-03-14

The first victim of war has fallen, as always it is the truth. We get selected images and testimonies from Ukraine, some accurate when truth fits the agenda, some false, and often with missing context. Both sides engage in a propaganda war. The majority of citizens in the West seem capable of spotting lies, exaggerations, censorship, and repression on the Russian side, but completely unable to detect the same on their own side. The invasion appeared to come out of the blue, especially for anyone who is ignorant of Russia's red line of nato expansions and nuclear weapons stationed not too far from their borders, obviously perceived as a security threat, which they have tried to get across for over two decades.

Western and independent media offices have shut down in Russia, and in the West Russian owned media have closed. There is no willingness to hear the other side's view of things. There is much talk about how Russians would overthrow Putin (assuming everything depends on him) if only they had accurate information about what is going on in the field. Maybe they would, as unlikely as it is. Speculations about the causes for the invasion sometimes point to natural resources, if they go beyond attributing the cause to irrationality and pure madness. The security aspect is not given credibility, and by no means are US long term scenarios for weakening, even breaking up Russia ever mentioned in mainstream media or even in some independent media.

Supporting the war by sending more weapons will only prolong the conflict and make it even more disastrous and dangerous. Nato at least have been wisely cautious about no-fly zones so far, despite the popular demand for it being drummed up. De-escalation and diplomatic talks is the way out, not supporting your favourite side with materiel and volunteer fighters.

Economic sanctions are adopted in large scale by virtually anyone who has anything to withdraw. The hypothesis that economic sanctions are effective is debatable. In numerous cases it has immiserated the population without really weakening the government (Iran, Iraq, Venezuela, Cuba, North Korea...). Perhaps there is just one example of success, that of apartheid South Africa, and then only after decades of sanctions, and even in that case I am not so sure sanctions were the determining cause. It is somewhat ironic that many of those who point out the poor efficacy of economic sanctions still argue for BDS, although it may be more a question of hurting Israel's reputation than their economy. If sanctions against Russia had been restricted to their oligarchs things might stand differently, although their political influence is not comparable to that of their Western class brethren. Moreover, sanctions will lead to countermeasures with severe consequences in Europe and most parts of the world.

The invasion appears as pure madness, or perhaps desperation, and in any case it is illegal under international law. It is possible to have different opinions on the best way out of this situation, although the consensus reality in the West has already narrowed to a pinhole. To broaden the perspective I recommend reading and listening to voices such as Tariq Ali, John Mearsheimer, François Asselineau, Scott Ritter, Caitlin Johnstone, Ray McGovern, Oliver Stone, and in particular the Los Alamos Study Group who posted an important bulletin.

I don't expect to change anyone's opinion. All I can do is to encourage everyone to seek news from more diverse sources, critically assess their reliability and agenda, and read up on recent history. The Study Group's bulletin is a good place to start.

Stay safe and calm if you can. Emotional agitation, including what at the moment seems to be justified hatred, only harms rational thinking and leads to hastened, unwise decisions.

GEMINILOGGBOOKOBERDADAISTICUS

The madness