VR Predictions

2021-02-19

I started writing about the current state of VR and the lack of competition in the hardware space but ended up scrapping it because it was a bit of a downer. Instead I thought it'd be a lot more fun to write a few predictions about where VR is going over the next several years.

2021

The number of VR users will continue to grow steadily. The percentage of Steam users with a VR headset will increase from 2% to ~2.5% (a number which doesn't fully account for the popularity of standalone headsets such as the Oculus Quest).

More and more developers will spend time porting their existing PCVR games to the Quest platform. Many new experiences will also target the Quest, though few will be exclusive to the platform.

The Decagear 1, a PCVR headset announced out of nowhere late 2020 by a startup from Singapore, gets delayed. There isn't much communication about it, but the developers either keep making videos on their progress hoping to get bought up or they begin plans to release the headset through a crowdfunding campaign.

The first standalone headsets to compete with Oculus begin to slowly trickle into the market by the end of the year, though they're from generally unknown companies and don't gain widespread adoption (at least in western markets).

2022

Valve announces and opens preorders for their new upcoming headset to be released towards the end of 2022 or 2023. This headset ditches lighthouse tracking in favor of inside-out tracking (but it might still be backwards compatible with lighthouse tracking). One of the focus points of this headset is to use more readily available parts so as to not run into all the supply issues that the Index had. This headset will also try to target the affordable VR market and therefore will not be a direct successor to the Index. The two will coexist.

The Oculus Quest 3 releases, putting Oculus on a steady ~1.5 year release cycle for their headsets. Sales are about as strong as Quest 2 sales.

More standalone headsets are released, this time targeting western markets more heavily. These headsets struggle due to not having the ecosystem or developer interest to properly compete with PCVR or the Quest platform.

Apple teases their VR device built on their own hardware. Initial launch is expensive and geared towards developers/professionals. Launches either in 2022 or 2023.

2023

Valve's new headset is one of the best selling PCVR headsets to date.

New headset from Sony hits the market. Most likely PSVR 2 powered by the PS5. It quickly becomes a must-have for PS5 owners.

At this point, some company is able to put out a really appealing competitor to the Quest platform which until now has still been one of the only good choices for inexpensive standalone VR. This new platform initially struggles because the Oculus ecosystem is so well established at this point. However, a lot of work is put into incentiving developers and making it relatively easy for them to port their apps over to this new platform and it slowly pays off. I don't have any great guesses for who this company might be. Valve is my top "wishlist" guess since I imagine they would open the platform up to other hardware manufacturers, but with all they have invested in SteamVR it seems unlikely that they'd put much effort into standalone. Microsoft is a soft maybe but they don't seem too interested in VR at the moment. It's not unlikely that this company would be Apple, since we know they have some interest in VR right now. The only question is whether they're able to get a consumer product ready this quick since they tend to take their time perfecting things. Maybe it'll be a new company or one that we don't expect.

VR adoption sees its quickest growth ever this year. VR is basically mainstream.

2025

PCVR is completely dwarfed by standalone VR, which is fine because most standalone headsets other than Apple's also allow you to hook up to a PC for PCVR. PCVR hasn't gone away and never will.

On that note, the percentage of Steam users with a VR headset is somewhere between 5-10%.

For many, meeting in VR has replaced video conferencing/calling, hanging out in chat rooms, etc.

There are still some small issues with cross-platform play and communication, but the situation is getting better with third-party solutions.

Cross-platform development isn't super difficult due to standalone headsets mostly using similar hardware.

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