Assumed Orthodoxies

There are many things which we think other people believe, which they might or might not actually believe. I coined the term "assumed orthodoxies" for this in the 1990s, but now understand it is better known as the "false consensus effect". Such a mutual misunderstanding can quickly break down, as it did when the Berlin Wall fell - it turned out nearly everyone actually really opposed the regime they had been pretending to support.

The assumed orthodoxies that interest me are the ones where the experts have largely got something wrong. There doesn't need to be any kind of conspiracy for such a thing to happen; indeed it can even happen by lots of little steps taken in any uncoordinated fashion by individuals trying to do the right thing. What sorts of steps lead towards the herding effect is what the rest of these pages will be about.

To Be Continued ...

Groupthink