I am preparing a contingency plan to evacuate my daughters to Africa: London would be an obvious target. And at least Ouagadougo and Banjul are not an obvious targets...

Indicators suggest Russia preparing for large-scale conflict with NATO

Russia is preparing for a “large-scale conventional conflict with NATO,” with indicators suggesting a shorter timeline than previously anticipated by Western analysts, ISW reported.

BY

IRYNA VOICHUK

21/03/2024

Russian financial, economic, and military indicators suggest that Russia is preparing for a large-scale conventional conflict with NATO, likely on a shorter timeline than initially posited by some Western analysts, the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) said in its latest report.

The recent classified German intelligence report indicates Russia’s potential military intentions towards NATO in the coming years, starting from 2026. The analysis suggests that Russia is preparing for a large-scale conflict with the West, indicated by the reorganization of its army, troop movements, and missile deployments in the western part of the country.

Russian President Vladimir Putin’s focus on appointing skilled and competent individuals to legislative bodies and his criticism of the Russian “elite” in his 29 February address to the Federation Council highlights his efforts to stabilize Russia’s long-term financial position amidst increased military spending, ISW said.

Russia’s attempts to circumvent international sanctions and the International Monetary Fund’s assessment of Russia’s GDP growth suggest a focus on securing long-term financial stability rather than addressing immediate financial concerns, the Institut suggested.

Polish President Andrzej Duda and Danish Defense Minister Troels Lund Poulsen have echoed concerns about Russia’s accelerated preparations for a potential attack on a NATO country, with timelines ranging from 2026 to 2027. ISW suggests that these preparations are part of Russia’s financial and domestic efforts for a potential future large-scale conflict with NATO.

The report also highlights ongoing Russian military reforms, including the formation of the Dnepr River Flotilla and efforts to bolster Russia’s conventional military capabilities.

“The Dnepr River Flotilla is the historical name of various special military river units that were active during the Russo-Turkish wars in 1735-1739 and 1787-1792, the Russian Civil War, and World War II, but this is the first time that Russian military officials have confirmed the formation of the Dnepr River Flotilla in relation to the ongoing war in Ukraine,” the report reads.

According to ISW, these reforms are more likely intended to prepare for a potential conventional war with NATO rather than the current war in Ukraine.

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A classified German intelligence report circulating in the federal government warns of a significant Russian military buildup that could enable an attack on NATO territory starting in 2026 after doubling conventional weapons capabilities, BI says.

BY

YURI ZORIA

16/03/2024

3 MINUTE READ

NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg holds a press conference on the day of a meeting of the Alliance defence ministers, in Brussels, Belgium June 14, 2023. REUTERS/Yves Herman

A classified German intelligence report indicates Russia’s potential military intentions towards NATO in the coming years, starting from 2026, according to Business Insider. The analysis suggests that Russia is preparing for a large-scale conflict with the West, indicated by the reorganization of its army, troop movements, and missile deployments in the western part of the country.

According to information from Business Insider, the “analysis by German intelligence services is currently circulating in the German government. According to this, a significant intensification of Russian arms production is being observed, which could lead to Russia doubling its military power in the next five years compared to today, especially in conventional weapons.”

This projection has led to the conclusion that an attack on at least part of NATO territory, such as the Baltic countries or Finland, can “no longer be ruled out” starting in 2026.

The report, which has not yet been made public by German services, has caught the attention of NATO headquarters as well. While there is concern over Russia’s growing military capabilities, NATO officials believe that this does not necessarily have to lead to war. The American intelligence assessment cited by Business Insider suggests that it might take Russia five to eight years to restore the military strength it had before the invasion of Ukraine.

Recently, various Western officials warned of a Russian military threat to NATO’s eastern flank, saying that Russia won’t stop in Ukraine and urging Europe to bolster defenses.

According to NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg, the Alliance must ready itself for a possible decades-long confrontation with Russia.

In December 2023, Belgian Army’s Chief of Staff Adm. Michel Hofman cautioned that Russia’s bellicose language and switch to a war footing suggest the possibility of new fronts opening against Moldova or the Baltic states, calling for Europe to bolster military readiness urgently.

In January 2024, Norway’s top commander, General Eirik Kristoffersen, warned of being “short on time” before a potential attack from unpredictable Russia, stating there is a one to three-year window to invest more in a secure defense.

The same month, President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelenskyy noted that he believes that victory over Russia in its war against Ukraine can be achieved once every NATO member country fully commits to ending this war as if it were their own battle.

Maj. Gen. Veiko-Vello Palm, Estonia’s land forces commander, said Russia is considered the only existential threat, and many NATO militaries are unprepared to fight it, despite efforts to revitalize Europe’s military capacity since 2014, when Russia first invaded Ukraine.

In February, Estonia’s Foreign Intelligence Service warned that Russia, preparing for a military confrontation with the West within the next decade, could be deterred by a NATO build-up, with plans to double forces along its border with NATO members Finland, Estonia, Lithuania, and Latvia.

Also in February, Estonia’s Foreign Minister Margus Tsahkna stated that NATO has approximately three to four years to bolster its defenses as Russian President Vladimir Putin intensifies his country’s “war machine.”

The same month, German Defense Minister Pistorius urged Europe and NATO to prepare for “the worst-case scenario,” stating that an attack on NATO territory could occur within five to eight years.