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I’ve encountered a few gemlog entries mentioning climate change; it was refreshing to read unfiltered opinions.
For example, it’s nice to not be the only person mentioning Venus in this context:
There is a weird effect in mainstream media—I mostly read The Guardian—whereby climate change is acknowledged and warned about but always in calm and measured tones.
I think I understand why: it’s because extraordinary claims made with passion can be “argued” against by attacking the passion and ignoring the issues. At least, I hope that’s the reason. It could also be that even the supportive mainstream media doesn’t “get” just how bad things are.
If the numbers are accurate and you know how to read them, you can predict the future! It’s a superpower.
At the start of March 2020—along with much of the rest of the world—I was watching the Covid infection rates closely. They were a very good fit for pure exponential growth, and so the prediction was clear. I told my team at work, “if there’s anything you need to get done in the real world, do it before the end of the month; that’s when everything changes”.
I could not possibly have imagined everything that was to come, and on an emotional level I didn’t really believe my prediction. But the numbers were clear and it was possible to act rationally in response.
The climate numbers are just as clear. As with Covid, I don’t really connect with them on an emotional level. If rational deduction could drive emotion, the correct response would be terror.
There’s plenty to read on the subject so I’ll just share what’s on my mind right about it right now.
In case you’re not aware: there is a global phenomenon called El Niño that varies year to year; if it happens, that’s a warm year globally. The last few years have been remarkable for climate records—but they are not El Niño years.
The climate shock that is just around the corner with the next El Niño year will be a big one, and it’s not going to let up after that. Every new extreme of badness will establish a new base level.
There isn’t one “everything changes” date to point to; it’s going to be a series of such events by region.
Suppose you have the option to move instantly to an alternate version of the Earth that is the same as our current world but the climate is just silently fixed forever.
How much is that option worth for you?
For me it’s clear: my family has a better chance starting from scratch in that alternate world, than we do well established in this one. My answer is “everything I have to give, as long as we can have a roof over our heads and food on the table”.
I suspect that even with that answer the emotional/rational conflict is misleading me, and the answer should really be “everything I have to give, as long as we can survive at all”.
For many in the coming decades, a roof and food will not be available.
I’d call that “very bad”.
I don’t see a lot that individuals can do to make a difference in the current—hah—climate.
So my response is three mostly selfish things.
First: I aim to enjoy what I have, while I still have it. We know for sure that the coming decades will see global upheaval to make world wars and global pandemics look minor by comparison.
Second: I live in a country that I think is relatively resistant to climate change. The coming global inequality will be horrific; to protect my family we must fall on the right side of it.
Third: we’re building a house with an eye on climate change; thick walls, ground heat exchanger, solar panels, a garden that should survive for a while.
And that’s it. If any movement or effort turns up that I can usefully get behind, I’m ready to sign up.
Until then—good luck, everyone.
So far today, 2024-05-12, feedback has been received 2 times. Of these, 0 were likely from bots, and 2 might have been from real people. Thank you, maybe-real people!
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