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This is a repost of a thread by @peterdutoit@mastodon.green, with some additinal quotes from the sources linked. Peter du Toit has been posting climate related posts on fedi for quite a while. This is a recommendation to follow his account.
He says:
We are firmly on a path to chaos. We continue to pour greenhouse gases into the atmosphere. Here is our track record for the period 1990-2022:
Graph sourced from this report:
> All sectors apart from transport have fully rebounded from the drop
> in emissions induced by the COVID-19 pandemic and now exceed 2019
> levels. CO2 emissions from fossil fuel combustion and industrial
> processes were the main contributors to the overall increase,
> accounting for about two thirds of current GHG emissions. Emissions
> of methane (CH4), nitrous oxide (N2O) and fluorinated gases
> (F-gases), which have higher global warming potentials and account
> for about one quarter of current GHG emissions, are increasing
> rapidly: in 2022, F-gas emissions grew by 5.5 per cent, followed by
> CH4 at 1.8 per cent and N2O at 0.9 per cent. – Broken Record:
> Temperatures hit new highs, yet world fails to cut emissions
> (again),
> by the UN environment programme.
As a result of the above, 2023 ended as the hottest year on record at +1.45°C above the preindustrial average, based on the six international climate datasets.
> The annual average global temperature approached 1.5° Celsius above
> pre-industrial levels – symbolic because the Paris Agreement on
> climate change aims to limit the long-term temperature increase
> (averaged over decades rather than an individual year like 2023) to
> no more than 1.5° Celsius above pre-industrial levels. – WMO
> confirms that 2023 smashes global temperature
> record.
At time of writing, using the standard decadal averages, we have currently heated by about +1.29ºC above the preindustrial average using four of the above datasets.
> This number shows an up-to-the-second assessment of human-induced
> global warming since the second half of the 19th century. – Global
> Warming Index
The consequences of a world that has heated by +1.3ºC has become very clear during the past year. Here is a month-by-month look at the extreme events of 2023.
> The number of global extreme weather events has seen a "staggering
> rise" in the past 30 years, said the United Nations, and experts
> warn climate change is "supercharging” the problem, per The
> Associated Press. – The extreme weather events of
> 2023, by
> Devika Rao, for The Week US, behind a subscription wall
With the emission trajectory for both CO₂ and Methane still increasing, the earth will continue to heat. There is no negotiation with the physics of this.
With our fossil fuel burning ways entrenched, we are firmly on track to pass the 1.5°C threshold in the near future.
Various groups have attempted to extrapolate when exactly this will become the earth’s permanent background baseline temperature.
Here is a projection from Berkley Earth:
> The last nine years have included all nine of the warmest years
> observed in the instrumental record. – Global Temperature Report
> for 2023,
> by Robert Rohde, for Berkley Earth
Here is the projection from Copernicus Climate Change:
> Global warming reached an estimated 1.26°C in December 2023. If the
> 30-year warming trend leading up then continued, global warming
> would reach 1.5°C by November 2033. – Global temperature trend
> monitor
There are others, like Dr James Hanson et al, who believe that these estimates are too conservative and that we will arrive at this threshold much sooner as they illustrate below.
> We expect record monthly temperatures to continue into mid-2024 due
> to the present large planetary energy imbalance, with the 12- month
> running-mean global temperature reaching +1.6-1.7°C relative to
> 1880-1920 and falling to only +1.4 ± 0.1°C during the following La
> Nina. Considering the large planetary energy imbalance, it will be
> clear that the world is passing through the 1.5°C ceiling, and is
> headed much higher, unless steps are taken to affect Earth’s energy
> imbalance. – Global Warming Acceleration: Causes and
> Consequences
Whichever of the above projections end up being what transpires in reality, we know for sure that we are going to smash right past the 1.5°C threshold sometime between 2024 and 2033.
The devastation we witnessed in 2023 at +1.3°C of heating will seem mild as we reach higher levels of heating. We now also have solid research that shows crossing 1.5°C permanently, will set in motion tipping points that will unleash even more climate chaos as a result of their cascading effects.
> Climate system tipping elements are components of the Earth system
> susceptible to a tipping point, that is, a critical threshold beyond
> which the system reorganises, often abruptly and/or irreversibly.
> Improved scientific understanding has shown that triggering climate
> system tipping points already this century cannot be ruled out, far
> sooner and at lower levels of warming than previously assumed. The
> goal of this chapter is to review the state of knowledge of climate
> system tipping points. – Climate Tipping Points: Insights for
> Effective Policy
> Action,
> OECD iLibrary
Our current response to what the physics requires to slow the emissions freight train is nothing short of a joke. The current policies put us on track for a +2.7°C world. Talk about an overshoot!
The UNEP on what is required starting immediately:
> To reach emission levels consistent with a below 2°C pathway in
> 2030, the cuts required per year are now 5.3 per cent from 2024,
> reaching 8.7 per cent per year on average for the 1.5°C pathway. To
> compare, the fall in total global GHG emissions from 2019 to 2020
> due to the COVID-19 pandemic was 4.7 per cent. – Broken Record:
> Temperatures hit new highs, yet world fails to cut emissions
> (again),
> by the UN environment programme.
As we start 2024 there is NO indication that we have any intent to approach this with the same urgency and determination which was displayed during the Covid pandemic.
Look around, it’s all business as usual.
As as result we are, as the UN Secretary General put it, "on a highway to climate hell with our foot still on the accelerator."
Right now, there are billions of people on the frontlines of this.
We are entering the period of climate induced chaos.
#Climate
**2024-03-10**. The situation is not improving. CO₂ at 425ppm. I often think about this as I was born at 330ppm of CO₂.
**2024-03-25**. Saw this one by @ed_hawkins@fediscience.org:
**2024-05-02**. @jackofalltrades@mas.to reposted this one:
**2024-05-12**. CO₂ in the atmosphere for the last 800 000 years, with the axis labels starting at 0, posted by @petergleick@fediscience.org:
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